Related article: response to such a devastating illness, there would be Cancer
Societies, no funds devoted towards curing cancer, and less
attention paid towards it. Just because a few wealthy,
cancer-afflicted aristocrats could not use their money to cure
themselves, doesn't negate the economic, incentive-based
reaction towards cancer.
8/21/2005 2:59 PM
The flaw in your logic is the speed with which society will
adapt. I don't feel it will be a slow shift away from oil, but
rather a sudden drop in supply will come first - unrest in
Nigeria or Venezuela and suddenly supply drastically exceeds
demand. Look at the panic buying which ensued during the UK
petrol protest in 2000 - it literally brought the country to a
The US is particularly dependent on petrol for transport. Look
at Walmart's worry over oil prices. Look at Surprise, AZ - a
community with no public transport, a group of suburbs which
are virtually unsustainable without cheap fuel:
We all agree that hybrids and changes of habits must happen.
Unfortunately, I bet that a sudden drop in supply will cause
total chaos before any real lasting change in habits begins to
I am also highly sceptical of any replacement technology for
oil - how long will it take to build the nuclear plants
required? Any idea how many plants would be needed? You can't
build a nuclear plant overnight.
Oil is to society as alcohol is to an alcoholic ... sadly, I
feel we're going to have to wake up in our Adefovir Dipivoxil Price own vomit before we
start any process of a real substantial move away from oil.
8/21/2005 3:50 PM
"The consequences of an actual shortfall of supply would be
immense. If consumption begins to exceed production by even a
small amount, the price of a barrel of oil could soar to
The price of oil has gone up precipitously in the last few
years, mainly because excess capacity has disappeared. We are
still consuming more every year. If and when we get to the
point where supply actually decreases, the price of a good with
an inelastic demand curve will go through the roof, at least
I agree that as long as cooler heads prevail, this does not
mean the end of civilization, but modern civilization is built
on the idea of growth. Our current system where the rich get
richer will only work when there is growth in the system. This
will become extremely difficult once energy becomes
constrained. Is it hard to believe that when the economy goes
into an extended funk and the people at the bottom are getting
squeezed Adefovir Dipivoxil Tablets the most, that people will want a scapegoat, esp one
thats supposedly sitting on all the oil?
8/21/2005 3:58 PM
The real problem with your analysis of the situation as one
which can be resolved by simple economics is that you're right.
You're right - prices will go up until enough demand is
destroyed for them to stabilize. There'll be a lot of up/down
in the meantime.
But what does this mean? In our country, this means you won't
be able to live in the suburbs anymore in most cities (no
public transportation; and no feasible way to deliver it to
most suburban neighborhoods). So what does that do to our
Concrete laid down now to build the latest exurbs has a long
life. And conversely, rebuilding today's suburbs to be dense
urban neighborhoods in which mass transit can actually work is