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Related article: response to such a devastating illness, there would be Cancer Societies, no funds devoted towards curing cancer, and less attention paid towards it. Just because a few wealthy, cancer-afflicted aristocrats could not use their money to cure themselves, doesn't negate the economic, incentive-based reaction towards cancer. -JB 8/21/2005 2:59 PM Anonymous said... The flaw in your logic is the speed with which society will adapt. I don't feel it will be a slow shift away from oil, but rather a sudden drop in supply will come first - unrest in Nigeria or Venezuela and suddenly supply drastically exceeds demand. Look at the panic buying which ensued during the UK petrol protest in 2000 - it literally brought the country to a halt: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_fuel_protest The US is particularly dependent on petrol for transport. Look at Walmart's worry over oil prices. Look at Surprise, AZ - a community with no public transport, a group of suburbs which are virtually unsustainable without cheap fuel: http://maps.google.com/maps?oi=map&q=Surprise,+AZ We all agree that hybrids and changes of habits must happen. Unfortunately, I bet that a sudden drop in supply will cause total chaos before any real lasting change in habits begins to occur. I am also highly sceptical of any replacement technology for oil - how long will it take to build the nuclear plants required? Any idea how many plants would be needed? You can't build a nuclear plant overnight. Oil is to society as alcohol is to an alcoholic ... sadly, I feel we're going to have to wake up in our Adefovir Dipivoxil Price own vomit before we start any process of a real substantial move away from oil. 8/21/2005 3:50 PM JW said... "The consequences of an actual shortfall of supply would be immense. If consumption begins to exceed production by even a small amount, the price of a barrel of oil could soar to triple-digit levels." The price of oil has gone up precipitously in the last few years, mainly because excess capacity has disappeared. We are still consuming more every year. If and when we get to the point where supply actually decreases, the price of a good with an inelastic demand curve will go through the roof, at least temporarily. I agree that as long as cooler heads prevail, this does not mean the end of civilization, but modern civilization is built on the idea of growth. Our current system where the rich get richer will only work when there is growth in the system. This will become extremely difficult once energy becomes constrained. Is it hard to believe that when the economy goes into an extended funk and the people at the bottom are getting squeezed Adefovir Dipivoxil Tablets the most, that people will want a scapegoat, esp one thats supposedly sitting on all the oil? 8/21/2005 3:58 PM Mike said... The real problem with your analysis of the situation as one which can be resolved by simple economics is that you're right. You're right - prices will go up until enough demand is destroyed for them to stabilize. There'll be a lot of up/down in the meantime. But what does this mean? In our country, this means you won't be able to live in the suburbs anymore in most cities (no public transportation; and no feasible way to deliver it to most suburban neighborhoods). So what does that do to our country? Concrete laid down now to build the latest exurbs has a long life. And conversely, rebuilding today's suburbs to be dense urban neighborhoods in which mass transit can actually work is